VVV Venlo 2–3 Dordrecht: Result & Stats

VVV Venlo

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Dordrecht

10/18/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 11Covebo Stadion - De Koel -

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

VVV Venlo47%

×Draw23%

Dordrecht29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVV VenloExpected goals in this matchDordrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.34

VVV Venlo

1.76

Dordrecht

1.34

VVV Venlo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 148 away

1.41

creates per match

1.22

1.46

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

VVV Venlo

1.41

Dordrecht

1.22

allows per match

VVV Venlo

1.46

Dordrecht

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Dordrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Dordrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw

71%

VVV Venlo or Dordrecht

77%

Draw or Dordrecht

53%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

25%

Dordrecht wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

83%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

52%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

26%

Dordrecht 1+ goals

74%

Dordrecht 2+ goals

39%

Dordrecht 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

62%

Dordrecht (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Dordrecht away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.41 + Dordrecht defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.76

Dordrecht attack 1.22 + VVV Venlo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

VVV Venlo scores more

47%

level

23%

Dordrecht scores more

29%

VVV Venlo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff