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Vvsb vs Rijnvogels — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Vvsb
Vvsb
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rijnvogels
Rijnvogels
G. Verver 88'
G. van Velzen 76', 18'
5/17/2025Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 33Sportpark De Boekhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Vvsb53%
×Draw21%
Rijnvogels26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vvsb
2.15
Rijnvogels
1.45

Vvsb creates 48% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Vvsb
2.35
Rijnvogels
1.59

allows per match

Vvsb
1.31
Rijnvogels
1.94

finishing

Vvsb+0.00on par
Rijnvogels+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vvsb ↓

Rijnvogels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vvsb or draw
74%
Vvsb or Rijnvogels
79%
Draw or Rijnvogels
47%

Winning margin

Vvsb wins by 2+
32%
Rijnvogels wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vvsb 1+ goals
88%
Vvsb 2+ goals
63%
Vvsb 3+ goals
36%
Rijnvogels 1+ goals
77%
Rijnvogels 2+ goals
42%
Rijnvogels 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vvsb (draw refunded)
67%
Rijnvogels (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vvsb at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Rijnvogels away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vvsb attack 2.35 + Rijnvogels defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.15

Rijnvogels attack 1.59 + Vvsb defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vvsb scores more
53%
level
21%
Rijnvogels scores more
26%

Vvsb at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vvsb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
G. van Velzen
76'
G. van Velzen
88'
G. Verver

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vvsb vs Rijnvogels

Vvsb beat Rijnvogels 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on May 17, 2025.

Goals: G. van Velzen (18', 76'), G. Verver (88').

The match was played at Sportpark De Boekhorst in Noordwijkerhout.