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Vvsb vs Hsc 21 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Vvsb
Vvsb
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Hsc 21
Hsc 21
11/19/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 15Sportpark De Boekhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Vvsb54%
×Draw22%
Hsc 2124%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vvsb
1.94
Hsc 21
1.24

Vvsb creates 56% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 48 away

creates per match

Vvsb
2.35
Hsc 21
1.17

allows per match

Vvsb
1.31
Hsc 21
1.52

finishing

Vvsb+0.00on par
Hsc 21+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vvsb ↓

Hsc 21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vvsb or draw
76%
Vvsb or Hsc 21
78%
Draw or Hsc 21
46%

Winning margin

Vvsb wins by 2+
31%
Hsc 21 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vvsb 1+ goals
86%
Vvsb 2+ goals
58%
Vvsb 3+ goals
30%
Hsc 21 1+ goals
71%
Hsc 21 2+ goals
35%
Hsc 21 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vvsb (draw refunded)
69%
Hsc 21 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vvsb at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Hsc 21 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vvsb attack 2.35 + Hsc 21 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.94

Hsc 21 attack 1.17 + Vvsb defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vvsb scores more
54%
level
22%
Hsc 21 scores more
24%

Vvsb at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vvsb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vvsb vs Hsc 21

Vvsb beat Hsc 21 4-2 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Boekhorst in Noordwijkerhout.