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Vvsb vs Hercules — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Vvsb
Vvsb
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hercules
Hercules
2/12/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 22Sportpark De Boekhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Vvsb43%
×Draw23%
Hercules34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vvsb
1.79
Hercules
1.56

Vvsb creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 46 away

creates per match

Vvsb
2.35
Hercules
1.80

allows per match

Vvsb
1.31
Hercules
1.24

finishing

Vvsb+0.00on par
Hercules+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vvsb ↓

Hercules →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vvsb or draw
66%
Vvsb or Hercules
77%
Draw or Hercules
57%

Winning margin

Vvsb wins by 2+
23%
Hercules wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Vvsb 1+ goals
83%
Vvsb 2+ goals
53%
Vvsb 3+ goals
26%
Hercules 1+ goals
79%
Hercules 2+ goals
46%
Hercules 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vvsb (draw refunded)
56%
Hercules (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vvsb at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Hercules away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vvsb attack 2.35 + Hercules defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.79

Hercules attack 1.80 + Vvsb defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vvsb scores more
43%
level
23%
Hercules scores more
34%

Vvsb at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vvsb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vvsb vs Hercules

Vvsb beat Hercules 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Boekhorst in Noordwijkerhout.