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Vvsb vs Harkemase Boys — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Vvsb
Vvsb
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
4/2/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 23Sportpark De Boekhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Vvsb36%
×Draw22%
Harkemase Boys42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vvsb
1.77
Harkemase Boys
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 98 away

creates per match

Vvsb
1.94
Harkemase Boys
1.68

allows per match

Vvsb
2.15
Harkemase Boys
1.59

finishing

Vvsb+0.00on par
Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vvsb ↓

Harkemase Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vvsb or draw
58%
Vvsb or Harkemase Boys
78%
Draw or Harkemase Boys
64%

Winning margin

Vvsb wins by 2+
18%
Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Vvsb 1+ goals
83%
Vvsb 2+ goals
53%
Vvsb 3+ goals
26%
Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
85%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
57%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Vvsb (draw refunded)
46%
Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vvsb at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.15 · 47 matches

Harkemase Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vvsb attack 1.94 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.77

Harkemase Boys attack 1.68 + Vvsb defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vvsb scores more
36%
level
22%
Harkemase Boys scores more
42%

Harkemase Boys at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Harkemase Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vvsb vs Harkemase Boys

Vvsb beat Harkemase Boys 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Boekhorst in Noordwijkerhout.