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Vvsb vs GVV Unitas — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Vvsb
Vvsb
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
GVV Unitas
GVV Unitas
11/5/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 13Sportpark De Boekhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vvsb58%
×Draw20%
GVV Unitas21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vvsb
2.21
GVV Unitas
1.27

Vvsb creates 74% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 54 away

creates per match

Vvsb
2.35
GVV Unitas
1.22

allows per match

Vvsb
1.31
GVV Unitas
2.06

finishing

Vvsb+0.00on par
GVV Unitas+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vvsb ↓

GVV Unitas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vvsb or draw
79%
Vvsb or GVV Unitas
80%
Draw or GVV Unitas
42%

Winning margin

Vvsb wins by 2+
36%
GVV Unitas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vvsb 1+ goals
89%
Vvsb 2+ goals
65%
Vvsb 3+ goals
38%
GVV Unitas 1+ goals
72%
GVV Unitas 2+ goals
36%
GVV Unitas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vvsb (draw refunded)
73%
GVV Unitas (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vvsb at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

GVV Unitas away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vvsb attack 2.35 + GVV Unitas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.21

GVV Unitas attack 1.22 + Vvsb defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vvsb scores more
58%
level
20%
GVV Unitas scores more
21%

Vvsb at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vvsb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vvsb vs GVV Unitas

Vvsb beat GVV Unitas 3-2 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Boekhorst in Noordwijkerhout.