Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vvsb vs DVS 33 Ermelo — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Vvsb
Vvsb
CANC
17:00
DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
3/13/2021Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Vvsb37%
×Draw22%
DVS 33 Ermelo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vvsb
1.73
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 100 away

creates per match

Vvsb
1.94
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.54

allows per match

Vvsb
2.15
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.51

finishing

Vvsb+0.00on par
DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vvsb ↓

DVS 33 Ermelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vvsb or draw
59%
Vvsb or DVS 33 Ermelo
78%
Draw or DVS 33 Ermelo
63%

Winning margin

Vvsb wins by 2+
19%
DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Vvsb 1+ goals
82%
Vvsb 2+ goals
52%
Vvsb 3+ goals
25%
DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
84%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
55%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Vvsb (draw refunded)
47%
DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vvsb at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.15 · 47 matches

DVS 33 Ermelo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vvsb attack 1.94 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.73

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 1.54 + Vvsb defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vvsb scores more
37%
level
22%
DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
41%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vvsb face DVS 33 Ermelo (Derde Divisie - Saturday)

Derde Divisie - Saturday returns with Vvsb hosting DVS 33 Ermelo. Match starts March 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.