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VVOG vs URK — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

VVOG
VVOG
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
URK
URK
1/28/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 20Sportpark De Strokel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

VVOG40%
×Draw22%
URK39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVOG
1.88
URK
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 68 away

creates per match

VVOG
1.52
URK
1.65

allows per match

VVOG
2.08
URK
2.24

finishing

VVOG+0.00on par
URK+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVOG ↓

URK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

VVOG or draw
61%
VVOG or URK
78%
Draw or URK
60%

Winning margin

VVOG wins by 2+
21%
URK wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

VVOG 1+ goals
85%
VVOG 2+ goals
56%
VVOG 3+ goals
29%
URK 1+ goals
84%
URK 2+ goals
55%
URK 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

VVOG (draw refunded)
50%
URK (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVOG at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

URK away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVOG attack 1.52 + URK defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.88

URK attack 1.65 + VVOG defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

VVOG scores more
40%
level
22%
URK scores more
39%

VVOG at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "VVOG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VVOG 1 – 2 URK

URK beat VVOG 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Strokel in Harderwijk.