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VVOG vs SteDoCo — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

VVOG
VVOG
CANC
00:00
SteDoCo
SteDoCo
4/18/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 30Sportpark De Strokel (Harderwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

VVOG33%
×Draw22%
SteDoCo45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVOG
1.61
SteDoCo
1.93

SteDoCo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 48 away

creates per match

VVOG
1.52
SteDoCo
1.77

allows per match

VVOG
2.08
SteDoCo
1.71

finishing

VVOG+0.00on par
SteDoCo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVOG ↓

SteDoCo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

VVOG or draw
55%
VVOG or SteDoCo
78%
Draw or SteDoCo
67%

Winning margin

VVOG wins by 2+
16%
SteDoCo wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

VVOG 1+ goals
80%
VVOG 2+ goals
48%
VVOG 3+ goals
22%
SteDoCo 1+ goals
85%
SteDoCo 2+ goals
57%
SteDoCo 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

VVOG (draw refunded)
42%
SteDoCo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVOG at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

SteDoCo away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVOG attack 1.52 + SteDoCo defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

SteDoCo attack 1.77 + VVOG defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VVOG scores more
33%
level
22%
SteDoCo scores more
45%

SteDoCo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SteDoCo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VVOG face SteDoCo (Derde Divisie - Saturday)

Derde Divisie - Saturday returns with VVOG hosting SteDoCo. Match starts April 18, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

VVOG host SteDoCo at Sportpark De Strokel (Harderwijk).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.