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SteDoCo vs VVOG — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

SteDoCo
SteDoCo
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
VVOG
VVOG
3/22/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 21Sportpark SteDoCo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

SteDoCo55%
×Draw22%
VVOG24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SteDoCo
2.00
VVOG
1.25

SteDoCo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 46 away

creates per match

SteDoCo
1.60
VVOG
1.35

allows per match

SteDoCo
1.15
VVOG
2.41

finishing

SteDoCo+0.00on par
VVOG+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SteDoCo ↓

VVOG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SteDoCo or draw
76%
SteDoCo or VVOG
78%
Draw or VVOG
45%

Winning margin

SteDoCo wins by 2+
32%
VVOG wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SteDoCo 1+ goals
86%
SteDoCo 2+ goals
59%
SteDoCo 3+ goals
32%
VVOG 1+ goals
71%
VVOG 2+ goals
36%
VVOG 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SteDoCo (draw refunded)
70%
VVOG (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SteDoCo at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

VVOG away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SteDoCo attack 1.60 + VVOG defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.00

VVOG attack 1.35 + SteDoCo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SteDoCo scores more
55%
level
22%
VVOG scores more
24%

SteDoCo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SteDoCo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SteDoCo 1 – 4 VVOG

VVOG beat SteDoCo 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on March 22, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark SteDoCo in Hoornaar.