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VVOG vs Staphorst — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

VVOG
VVOG
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Staphorst
Staphorst
3/26/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 20Sportpark De Strokel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

VVOG38%
×Draw23%
Staphorst39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVOG
1.69
Staphorst
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 71 away

creates per match

VVOG
1.52
Staphorst
1.32

allows per match

VVOG
2.08
Staphorst
1.85

finishing

VVOG+0.00on par
Staphorst+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVOG ↓

Staphorst →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

VVOG or draw
61%
VVOG or Staphorst
77%
Draw or Staphorst
62%

Winning margin

VVOG wins by 2+
19%
Staphorst wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

VVOG 1+ goals
82%
VVOG 2+ goals
50%
VVOG 3+ goals
24%
Staphorst 1+ goals
82%
Staphorst 2+ goals
51%
Staphorst 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

VVOG (draw refunded)
50%
Staphorst (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVOG at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

Staphorst away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVOG attack 1.52 + Staphorst defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.69

Staphorst attack 1.32 + VVOG defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

VVOG scores more
38%
level
23%
Staphorst scores more
39%

Staphorst at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Staphorst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: VVOG 2–1 Staphorst

VVOG beat Staphorst 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Strokel in Harderwijk.