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VVOG vs HSV ODIN 59 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

VVOG
VVOG
FT
1 – 4
HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
12/14/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 16Sportpark De Strokel (Harderwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

VVOG44%
×Draw22%
HSV ODIN 5935%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVOG
1.98
HSV ODIN 59
1.75

VVOG creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 46 away

creates per match

VVOG
1.52
HSV ODIN 59
1.43

allows per match

VVOG
2.08
HSV ODIN 59
2.43

finishing

VVOG+0.00on par
HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVOG ↓

HSV ODIN 59 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

VVOG or draw
65%
VVOG or HSV ODIN 59
78%
Draw or HSV ODIN 59
56%

Winning margin

VVOG wins by 2+
24%
HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

VVOG 1+ goals
86%
VVOG 2+ goals
59%
VVOG 3+ goals
31%
HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
83%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
52%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

VVOG (draw refunded)
56%
HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVOG at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

HSV ODIN 59 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVOG attack 1.52 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.98

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.43 + VVOG defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

VVOG scores more
44%
level
22%
HSV ODIN 59 scores more
35%

VVOG at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "VVOG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VVOG vs HSV ODIN 59

HSV ODIN 59 beat VVOG 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark De Strokel (Harderwijk).