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HSV ODIN 59 vs VVOG — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
CANC
00:00
VVOG
VVOG
3/14/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 25Sportpark Assumburg (Heemskerk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

HSV ODIN 5946%
×Draw21%
VVOG32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HSV ODIN 59
2.08
VVOG
1.72

HSV ODIN 59 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 46 away

creates per match

HSV ODIN 59
1.75
VVOG
1.35

allows per match

HSV ODIN 59
2.08
VVOG
2.41

finishing

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par
VVOG+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HSV ODIN 59 ↓

VVOG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

HSV ODIN 59 or draw
68%
HSV ODIN 59 or VVOG
79%
Draw or VVOG
54%

Winning margin

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
27%
VVOG wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
87%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
61%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
34%
VVOG 1+ goals
82%
VVOG 2+ goals
51%
VVOG 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
59%
VVOG (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HSV ODIN 59 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

VVOG away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.75 + VVOG defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.08

VVOG attack 1.35 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

HSV ODIN 59 scores more
46%
level
21%
VVOG scores more
32%

HSV ODIN 59 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "HSV ODIN 59 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: HSV ODIN 59 host VVOG

March 14, 2020: HSV ODIN 59 take on VVOG in Derde Divisie - Saturday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

HSV ODIN 59 host VVOG at Sportpark Assumburg (Heemskerk).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.