VVOG 1–5 GVVV Veenendaal: Result & Stats

VVOG

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

GVVV Veenendaal

3/4/2023

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 24Sportpark De Strokel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

VVOG22%

×Draw20%

GVVV Veenendaal58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVOGExpected goals in this matchGVVV Veenendaal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.21

VVOG

1.29

GVVV Veenendaal

2.21

GVVV Veenendaal creates 71% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

1.52

creates per match

2.35

2.08

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

VVOG

1.52

GVVV Veenendaal

2.35

allows per match

VVOG

2.08

GVVV Veenendaal

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VVOG+0.00on par

GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVOG ↓

GVVV Veenendaal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

VVOG or draw

42%

VVOG or GVVV Veenendaal

80%

Draw or GVVV Veenendaal

78%

Winning margin

VVOG wins by 2+

9%

GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

VVOG 1+ goals

72%

VVOG 2+ goals

37%

VVOG 3+ goals

14%

GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals

89%

GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals

65%

GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

VVOG (draw refunded)

27%

GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVOG at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

GVVV Veenendaal away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVOG attack 1.52 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

GVVV Veenendaal attack 2.35 + VVOG defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

VVOG scores more

22%

level

20%

GVVV Veenendaal scores more

58%

GVVV Veenendaal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "GVVV Veenendaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff