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VVOG vs DVS 33 Ermelo — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

VVOG
VVOG
FT
1 – 1
DVS 33 Ermelo
DVS 33 Ermelo
2/1/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 20Sportpark De Strokel (Harderwijk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

VVOG33%
×Draw23%
DVS 33 Ermelo45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVOG
1.52
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.81

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 100 away

creates per match

VVOG
1.52
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.54

allows per match

VVOG
2.08
DVS 33 Ermelo
1.51

finishing

VVOG+0.00on par
DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVOG ↓

DVS 33 Ermelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

VVOG or draw
55%
VVOG or DVS 33 Ermelo
77%
Draw or DVS 33 Ermelo
67%

Winning margin

VVOG wins by 2+
15%
DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

VVOG 1+ goals
78%
VVOG 2+ goals
45%
VVOG 3+ goals
20%
DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals
84%
DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals
54%
DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

VVOG (draw refunded)
42%
DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVOG at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

DVS 33 Ermelo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVOG attack 1.52 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 1.54 + VVOG defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VVOG scores more
33%
level
23%
DVS 33 Ermelo scores more
45%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: VVOG 1–1 DVS 33 Ermelo

VVOG and DVS 33 Ermelo drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark De Strokel (Harderwijk).