DVS 33 Ermelo 5–0 VVOG: Result & Stats

DVS 33 Ermelo

FT

5 – 0

VVOG

10/9/2021

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 8Sportpark Zuid DVS '33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

DVS 33 Ermelo61%

×Draw20%

VVOG20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DVS 33 ErmeloExpected goals in this matchVVOG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.21

DVS 33 Ermelo

2.26

VVOG

1.21

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 87% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 46 away

2.11

creates per match

1.35

1.07

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

DVS 33 Ermelo

2.11

VVOG

1.35

allows per match

DVS 33 Ermelo

1.07

VVOG

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

VVOG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DVS 33 Ermelo ↓

VVOG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

DVS 33 Ermelo or draw

80%

DVS 33 Ermelo or VVOG

80%

Draw or VVOG

39%

Winning margin

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+

38%

VVOG wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals

89%

DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals

66%

DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals

39%

VVOG 1+ goals

70%

VVOG 2+ goals

34%

VVOG 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)

76%

VVOG (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DVS 33 Ermelo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.07 · 98 matches

VVOG away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 2.11 + VVOG defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.26

VVOG attack 1.35 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more

61%

level

20%

VVOG scores more

20%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff