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VVOG vs ASWH — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

VVOG
VVOG
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
ASWH
ASWH
5/6/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 31Sportpark De Strokel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

VVOG42%
×Draw24%
ASWH34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVOG
1.58
ASWH
1.40

VVOG creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

VVOG
1.52
ASWH
0.71

allows per match

VVOG
2.08
ASWH
1.65

finishing

VVOG+0.00on par
ASWH+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVOG ↓

ASWH →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

VVOG or draw
66%
VVOG or ASWH
76%
Draw or ASWH
58%

Winning margin

VVOG wins by 2+
21%
ASWH wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

VVOG 1+ goals
79%
VVOG 2+ goals
47%
VVOG 3+ goals
21%
ASWH 1+ goals
75%
ASWH 2+ goals
41%
ASWH 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

VVOG (draw refunded)
55%
ASWH (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVOG at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

ASWH away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVOG attack 1.52 + ASWH defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.58

ASWH attack 0.71 + VVOG defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

VVOG scores more
42%
level
24%
ASWH scores more
34%

VVOG at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "VVOG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VVOG 2 – 1 ASWH

VVOG beat ASWH 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Strokel in Harderwijk.