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VVOG vs Ajax Amateurs — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

VVOG
VVOG
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ajax Amateurs
Ajax Amateurs
4/16/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 25Sportpark De Strokel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

VVOG42%
×Draw23%
Ajax Amateurs35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVOG
1.78
Ajax Amateurs
1.60

VVOG creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 49 away

creates per match

VVOG
1.52
Ajax Amateurs
1.12

allows per match

VVOG
2.08
Ajax Amateurs
2.04

finishing

VVOG+0.00on par
Ajax Amateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVOG ↓

Ajax Amateurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

VVOG or draw
65%
VVOG or Ajax Amateurs
77%
Draw or Ajax Amateurs
58%

Winning margin

VVOG wins by 2+
22%
Ajax Amateurs wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

VVOG 1+ goals
83%
VVOG 2+ goals
53%
VVOG 3+ goals
26%
Ajax Amateurs 1+ goals
80%
Ajax Amateurs 2+ goals
47%
Ajax Amateurs 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

VVOG (draw refunded)
55%
Ajax Amateurs (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVOG at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

Ajax Amateurs away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVOG attack 1.52 + Ajax Amateurs defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.78

Ajax Amateurs attack 1.12 + VVOG defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

VVOG scores more
42%
level
23%
Ajax Amateurs scores more
35%

VVOG at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "VVOG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: VVOG 1–1 Ajax Amateurs

VVOG and Ajax Amateurs drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Strokel in Harderwijk.