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VVOG vs ACV — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

VVOG
VVOG
CANC
12:30
ACV
ACV
10/17/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 7Sportpark De Strokel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

VVOG27%
×Draw22%
ACV51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VVOG
1.34
ACV
1.92

ACV creates 43% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 36 away

creates per match

VVOG
1.52
ACV
1.75

allows per match

VVOG
2.08
ACV
1.17

finishing

VVOG+0.00on par
ACV+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVOG ↓

ACV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

VVOG or draw
49%
VVOG or ACV
78%
Draw or ACV
73%

Winning margin

VVOG wins by 2+
11%
ACV wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

VVOG 1+ goals
74%
VVOG 2+ goals
39%
VVOG 3+ goals
15%
ACV 1+ goals
85%
ACV 2+ goals
57%
ACV 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

VVOG (draw refunded)
35%
ACV (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVOG at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

ACV away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVOG attack 1.52 + ACV defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.34

ACV attack 1.75 + VVOG defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

VVOG scores more
27%
level
22%
ACV scores more
51%

ACV at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "ACV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VVOG vs ACV — Match Preview

VVOG face ACV on October 17, 2020 in this Derde Divisie - Saturday fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

VVOG host ACV at Sportpark De Strokel.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.