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ACV vs VVOG — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

ACV
ACV
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
VVOG
VVOG
5/21/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 31Catawiki Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

ACV55%
×Draw22%
VVOG23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ACV
2.02
VVOG
1.25

ACV creates 62% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 46 away

creates per match

ACV
1.64
VVOG
1.35

allows per match

ACV
1.14
VVOG
2.41

finishing

ACV+0.00on par
VVOG+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ACV ↓

VVOG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

ACV or draw
77%
ACV or VVOG
78%
Draw or VVOG
45%

Winning margin

ACV wins by 2+
32%
VVOG wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

ACV 1+ goals
87%
ACV 2+ goals
60%
ACV 3+ goals
33%
VVOG 1+ goals
71%
VVOG 2+ goals
36%
VVOG 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

ACV (draw refunded)
70%
VVOG (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ACV at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

VVOG away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ACV attack 1.64 + VVOG defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.02

VVOG attack 1.35 + ACV defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

ACV scores more
55%
level
22%
VVOG scores more
23%

ACV at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "ACV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ACV vs VVOG

ACV beat VVOG 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Catawiki Sportpark in Assen.