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VV Alkmaar W vs Telstar W — Eredivisie Women 2018

VV Alkmaar W
VV Alkmaar W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Telstar W
Telstar W
3/3/2023Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 16Sportpark AFC '34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

VV Alkmaar W53%
×Draw21%
Telstar W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VV Alkmaar W
2.19
Telstar W
1.51

VV Alkmaar W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 32 away

creates per match

VV Alkmaar W
1.41
Telstar W
0.75

allows per match

VV Alkmaar W
2.27
Telstar W
2.97

finishing

VV Alkmaar W+0.00on par
Telstar W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VV Alkmaar W ↓

Telstar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

VV Alkmaar W or draw
74%
VV Alkmaar W or Telstar W
79%
Draw or Telstar W
47%

Winning margin

VV Alkmaar W wins by 2+
32%
Telstar W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

VV Alkmaar W 1+ goals
89%
VV Alkmaar W 2+ goals
64%
VV Alkmaar W 3+ goals
37%
Telstar W 1+ goals
78%
Telstar W 2+ goals
44%
Telstar W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

VV Alkmaar W (draw refunded)
67%
Telstar W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VV Alkmaar W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.27 · 41 matches

Telstar W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.97 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VV Alkmaar W attack 1.41 + Telstar W defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 2.19

Telstar W attack 0.75 + VV Alkmaar W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

VV Alkmaar W scores more
53%
level
21%
Telstar W scores more
26%

VV Alkmaar W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "VV Alkmaar W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie Women: VV Alkmaar W 1–2 Telstar W

Telstar W beat VV Alkmaar W 2-1 in Eredivisie Women on March 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark AFC '34 in Alkmaar.