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VV Alkmaar W vs PSV/Eindhoven W — Eredivisie Women 2018

VV Alkmaar W
VV Alkmaar W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
PSV/Eindhoven W
PSV/Eindhoven W
11/4/2022Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 7Sportpark AFC '34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

VV Alkmaar W22%
×Draw21%
PSV/Eindhoven W57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VV Alkmaar W
1.25
PSV/Eindhoven W
2.14

PSV/Eindhoven W creates 71% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 73 away

creates per match

VV Alkmaar W
1.41
PSV/Eindhoven W
2.01

allows per match

VV Alkmaar W
2.27
PSV/Eindhoven W
1.10

finishing

VV Alkmaar W+0.00on par
PSV/Eindhoven W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VV Alkmaar W ↓

PSV/Eindhoven W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

VV Alkmaar W or draw
43%
VV Alkmaar W or PSV/Eindhoven W
79%
Draw or PSV/Eindhoven W
78%

Winning margin

VV Alkmaar W wins by 2+
9%
PSV/Eindhoven W wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

VV Alkmaar W 1+ goals
71%
VV Alkmaar W 2+ goals
36%
VV Alkmaar W 3+ goals
13%
PSV/Eindhoven W 1+ goals
88%
PSV/Eindhoven W 2+ goals
63%
PSV/Eindhoven W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

VV Alkmaar W (draw refunded)
28%
PSV/Eindhoven W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VV Alkmaar W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.27 · 41 matches

PSV/Eindhoven W away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.10 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VV Alkmaar W attack 1.41 + PSV/Eindhoven W defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

PSV/Eindhoven W attack 2.01 + VV Alkmaar W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

VV Alkmaar W scores more
22%
level
21%
PSV/Eindhoven W scores more
57%

PSV/Eindhoven W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "PSV/Eindhoven W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VV Alkmaar W vs PSV/Eindhoven W

PSV/Eindhoven W beat VV Alkmaar W 2-0 in Eredivisie Women on November 4, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark AFC '34 in Alkmaar.