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VV Alkmaar W vs Achiless 29 W — Eredivisie Women 2018

VV Alkmaar W
VV Alkmaar W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Achiless 29 W
Achiless 29 W
9/7/2018Eredivisie WomenEredivisie Women · Round 1Sportpark AFC '34 (Alkmaar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

VV Alkmaar W76%
×Draw13%
Achiless 29 W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VV Alkmaar W
3.44
Achiless 29 W
1.29

VV Alkmaar W creates 167% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 13 away

creates per match

VV Alkmaar W
1.41
Achiless 29 W
0.31

allows per match

VV Alkmaar W
2.27
Achiless 29 W
5.46

finishing

VV Alkmaar W+0.00on par
Achiless 29 W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VV Alkmaar W ↓

Achiless 29 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

VV Alkmaar W or draw
89%
VV Alkmaar W or Achiless 29 W
87%
Draw or Achiless 29 W
24%

Winning margin

VV Alkmaar W wins by 2+
58%
Achiless 29 W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

VV Alkmaar W 1+ goals
97%
VV Alkmaar W 2+ goals
85%
VV Alkmaar W 3+ goals
65%
Achiless 29 W 1+ goals
72%
Achiless 29 W 2+ goals
37%
Achiless 29 W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

VV Alkmaar W (draw refunded)
88%
Achiless 29 W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VV Alkmaar W at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.27 · 41 matches

Achiless 29 W away — creates 0.31, concedes 5.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VV Alkmaar W attack 1.41 + Achiless 29 W defence 5.46 → ÷2 → 3.44

Achiless 29 W attack 0.31 + VV Alkmaar W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

VV Alkmaar W scores more
76%
level
13%
Achiless 29 W scores more
11%

VV Alkmaar W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "VV Alkmaar W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VV Alkmaar W vs Achiless 29 W

VV Alkmaar W beat Achiless 29 W 3-1 in Eredivisie Women on September 7, 2018.

The match was played at Sportpark AFC '34 (Alkmaar).