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Vuteks-Sloga vs NAŠK Našice — League #217 2026

Vuteks-Sloga
Vuteks-Sloga
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NAŠK Našice
NAŠK Našice
4/19/2025League #217League #217 · East - 23Vuteksov stadion na Sajmištu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vuteks-Sloga63%
×Draw18%
NAŠK Našice18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vuteks-Sloga
2.46
NAŠK Našice
1.26

Vuteks-Sloga creates 95% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 28 away

creates per match

Vuteks-Sloga
2.67
NAŠK Našice
0.86

allows per match

Vuteks-Sloga
1.67
NAŠK Našice
2.25

finishing

Vuteks-Sloga+0.00on par
NAŠK Našice+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vuteks-Sloga ↓

NAŠK Našice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Vuteks-Sloga or draw
82%
Vuteks-Sloga or NAŠK Našice
82%
Draw or NAŠK Našice
37%

Winning margin

Vuteks-Sloga wins by 2+
42%
NAŠK Našice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vuteks-Sloga 1+ goals
91%
Vuteks-Sloga 2+ goals
70%
Vuteks-Sloga 3+ goals
44%
NAŠK Našice 1+ goals
72%
NAŠK Našice 2+ goals
36%
NAŠK Našice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vuteks-Sloga (draw refunded)
78%
NAŠK Našice (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vuteks-Sloga at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

NAŠK Našice away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vuteks-Sloga attack 2.67 + NAŠK Našice defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.46

NAŠK Našice attack 0.86 + Vuteks-Sloga defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vuteks-Sloga scores more
63%
level
18%
NAŠK Našice scores more
18%

Vuteks-Sloga at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vuteks-Sloga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vuteks-Sloga vs NAŠK Našice

Vuteks-Sloga beat NAŠK Našice 3-0 in League #217 on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Vuteksov stadion na Sajmištu in Vukovar.