Vulturii Cutezători 1–2 Sîngerei: Result & Stats

Vulturii Cutezători

1 – 2

Sîngerei

8/17/2022

Cupa · Preliminary RoundStadionul Sîngerei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vulturii Cutezători49%

×Draw20%

Sîngerei31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vulturii CutezătoriExpected goals in this matchSîngerei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.80

Vulturii Cutezători

2.27

Sîngerei

1.80

Vulturii Cutezători creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.33

creates per match

1.60

2.00

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Vulturii Cutezători

2.33

Sîngerei

1.60

allows per match

Vulturii Cutezători

2.00

Sîngerei

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vulturii Cutezători+0.00on par

Sîngerei+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vulturii Cutezători ↓

Sîngerei →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Vulturii Cutezători or draw

69%

Vulturii Cutezători or Sîngerei

80%

Draw or Sîngerei

51%

Winning margin

Vulturii Cutezători wins by 2+

29%

Sîngerei wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vulturii Cutezători 1+ goals

90%

Vulturii Cutezători 2+ goals

66%

Vulturii Cutezători 3+ goals

39%

Sîngerei 1+ goals

83%

Sîngerei 2+ goals

54%

Sîngerei 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Vulturii Cutezători (draw refunded)

61%

Sîngerei (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vulturii Cutezători at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Sîngerei away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vulturii Cutezători attack 2.33 + Sîngerei defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.27

Sîngerei attack 1.60 + Vulturii Cutezători defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vulturii Cutezători scores more

49%

level

20%

Sîngerei scores more

31%

Vulturii Cutezători at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vulturii Cutezători will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff