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Vulturii Cutezători vs FC Stăuceni — Cupa 2020

Vulturii Cutezători
Vulturii Cutezători
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
FC Stăuceni
FC Stăuceni
D. Maga 90', 23'
R. Miciu 66'
M. Paladi 57'
V. Andronic 43' (OG)
N. Josan 6'
10/3/2023CupaCupa · 2nd RoundStadionul Sîngerei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vulturii Cutezători43%
×Draw20%
FC Stăuceni37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vulturii Cutezători
2.28
FC Stăuceni
2.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vulturii Cutezători
2.33
FC Stăuceni
2.22

allows per match

Vulturii Cutezători
2.00
FC Stăuceni
2.22

finishing

Vulturii Cutezători+0.00on par
FC Stăuceni+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vulturii Cutezători ↓

FC Stăuceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Vulturii Cutezători or draw
63%
Vulturii Cutezători or FC Stăuceni
80%
Draw or FC Stăuceni
57%

Winning margin

Vulturii Cutezători wins by 2+
25%
FC Stăuceni wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Vulturii Cutezători 1+ goals
90%
Vulturii Cutezători 2+ goals
66%
Vulturii Cutezători 3+ goals
39%
FC Stăuceni 1+ goals
88%
FC Stăuceni 2+ goals
62%
FC Stăuceni 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Vulturii Cutezători (draw refunded)
54%
FC Stăuceni (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vulturii Cutezători at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

FC Stăuceni away — creates 2.22, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vulturii Cutezători attack 2.33 + FC Stăuceni defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.28

FC Stăuceni attack 2.22 + Vulturii Cutezători defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Vulturii Cutezători scores more
43%
level
20%
FC Stăuceni scores more
37%

Vulturii Cutezători at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Vulturii Cutezători will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
N. Josan
23'
D. Maga
43'
V. AndronicOwn goal
57'
M. Paladi
66'
R. Miciu
90'
D. Maga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vulturii Cutezători 2 – 4 FC Stăuceni

FC Stăuceni beat Vulturii Cutezători 4-2 in Cupa on October 3, 2023.

Goals: N. Josan (6'), D. Maga (23', 90'), V. Andronic (43' o.g.), M. Paladi (57'), R. Miciu (66').

The match was played at Stadionul Sîngerei in Sîngerei.