Temnic 1924 0–2 Car Konstantin: Result & Stats

Temnic 1924

FT

0 – 2

Car Konstantin

3/8/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 16Fudbalsko igraliste Temnić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Temnic 192437%

×Draw24%

Car Konstantin39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Temnic 1924Expected goals in this matchCar Konstantin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.53

Temnic 1924

1.49

Car Konstantin

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 42 away

0.63

creates per match

1.19

1.88

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Temnic 1924

0.63

Car Konstantin

1.19

allows per match

Temnic 1924

1.88

Car Konstantin

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Temnic 1924+0.00on par

Car Konstantin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Temnic 1924 ↓

Car Konstantin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Temnic 1924 or draw

61%

Temnic 1924 or Car Konstantin

76%

Draw or Car Konstantin

63%

Winning margin

Temnic 1924 wins by 2+

18%

Car Konstantin wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Temnic 1924 1+ goals

77%

Temnic 1924 2+ goals

44%

Temnic 1924 3+ goals

19%

Car Konstantin 1+ goals

78%

Car Konstantin 2+ goals

45%

Car Konstantin 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Temnic 1924 (draw refunded)

49%

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Temnic 1924 at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Car Konstantin away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Temnic 1924 attack 0.63 + Car Konstantin defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.49

Car Konstantin attack 1.19 + Temnic 1924 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Temnic 1924 scores more

37%

level

24%

Car Konstantin scores more

39%

Car Konstantin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Car Konstantin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff