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Vukovar vs Solin — First NL 2018

Vukovar
Vukovar
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Solin
Solin
3/11/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 21Stadion u Borovom Naselju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vukovar62%
×Draw22%
Solin16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vukovar
1.88
Solin
0.85

Vukovar creates 121% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 88 away

creates per match

Vukovar
1.90
Solin
1.01

allows per match

Vukovar
0.69
Solin
1.85

finishing

Vukovar+0.00on par
Solin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vukovar ↓

Solin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vukovar or draw
84%
Vukovar or Solin
78%
Draw or Solin
38%

Winning margin

Vukovar wins by 2+
36%
Solin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Vukovar 1+ goals
85%
Vukovar 2+ goals
56%
Vukovar 3+ goals
29%
Solin 1+ goals
57%
Solin 2+ goals
21%
Solin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vukovar (draw refunded)
79%
Solin (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vukovar at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.69 · 51 matches

Solin away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.85 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vukovar attack 1.90 + Solin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.88

Solin attack 1.01 + Vukovar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vukovar scores more
62%
level
22%
Solin scores more
16%

Vukovar at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Vukovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vukovar 4 – 0 Solin

Vukovar beat Solin 4-0 in First NL on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion u Borovom Naselju in Vukovar.