Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vukovar vs Orijent 1919 — First NL 2018

Vukovar
Vukovar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Orijent 1919
Orijent 1919
11/11/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 14Stadion u Borovom Naselju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vukovar54%
×Draw24%
Orijent 191922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vukovar
1.72
Orijent 1919
1.00

Vukovar creates 72% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 109 away

creates per match

Vukovar
1.90
Orijent 1919
1.32

allows per match

Vukovar
0.69
Orijent 1919
1.54

finishing

Vukovar+0.00on par
Orijent 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vukovar ↓

Orijent 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vukovar or draw
78%
Vukovar or Orijent 1919
76%
Draw or Orijent 1919
46%

Winning margin

Vukovar wins by 2+
30%
Orijent 1919 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vukovar 1+ goals
82%
Vukovar 2+ goals
51%
Vukovar 3+ goals
25%
Orijent 1919 1+ goals
63%
Orijent 1919 2+ goals
26%
Orijent 1919 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vukovar (draw refunded)
71%
Orijent 1919 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vukovar at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.69 · 51 matches

Orijent 1919 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.54 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vukovar attack 1.90 + Orijent 1919 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.72

Orijent 1919 attack 1.32 + Vukovar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vukovar scores more
54%
level
24%
Orijent 1919 scores more
22%

Vukovar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vukovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vukovar vs Orijent 1919

Vukovar beat Orijent 1919 2-0 in First NL on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion u Borovom Naselju in Vukovar.