Vukovar 1–2 HNK Gorica: Result & Stats | HNL

Vukovar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

HNK Gorica

J. Puljic 45' (pen)

A. Erceg 66' (pen)

Z. Trontelj 19'

4/22/2026

HNL · Round 31Stadion Gradski vrt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Vukovar44%

×Draw25%

HNK Gorica30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VukovarExpected goals in this matchHNK Gorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.21

Vukovar

1.51

HNK Gorica

1.21

Vukovar creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 28 away

1.39

creates per match

1.03

1.38

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Vukovar

1.39

HNK Gorica

1.03

allows per match

Vukovar

1.38

HNK Gorica

1.63

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Vukovar-0.25scores less

HNK Gorica-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vukovar ↓

HNK Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Vukovar or draw

70%

Vukovar or HNK Gorica

75%

Draw or HNK Gorica

56%

Winning margin

Vukovar wins by 2+

22%

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Vukovar 1+ goals

78%

Vukovar 2+ goals

44%

Vukovar 3+ goals

19%

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

70%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

34%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vukovar (draw refunded)

59%

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vukovar at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vukovar attack 1.39 + HNK Gorica defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

HNK Gorica attack 1.03 + Vukovar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vukovar scores more

44%

level

25%

HNK Gorica scores more

30%

Vukovar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vukovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

I. Pozo

HNK Gorica · M

8.9

Match Events

19'

Z. Trontelj↳ I. Pozo

27'

Kristijan Čabrajić

30'

Moreno Živković

32'

K. Calhanoglu← K. Cabrajic

41'

Mario Tadić

45+1'

Eniss ShabaniPenalty confirmed

45'

J. PuljicPenalty

46'

A. Bosec← M. Tadic

59'

L. Kulusic← L. Banovec

63'

Eniss Shabani

66'

A. ErcegPenalty

76'

A. Jurilj← S. Butic

76'

P. Bugas← E. Shabani

81'

O. Bakic← B. Bogojevic

85'

Robin González

85'

Marijan Čabraja

89'

T. Epailly← J. Prsir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VukovarHNK

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots16

1.39Expected Goals (xG)1.90

2Corners2

15Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots16

2On Target8

5Off Target6

5Blocked2

4Inside Box11

8Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

367Total Passes389

279Accurate Passes315

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

-0.13Goals Prevented-0.13

Discipline

15Fouls11

5Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

HNL: Vukovar 1–2 HNK Gorica

HNK Gorica beat Vukovar 2-1 in HNL on April 22, 2026.

Goals: Z. Trontelj (19'), J. Puljic (45' pen), A. Erceg (66' pen).

HNK Gorica controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski vrt in Osijek.

Vukovar vs HNK Gorica — HNL 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNL: Vukovar 1–2 HNK Gorica