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Vukovar vs HNK Cibalia — First NL 2018

Vukovar
Vukovar
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia
5/3/2025First NLFirst NL · Round 29Stadion u Borovom Naselju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vukovar57%
×Draw24%
HNK Cibalia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vukovar
1.71
HNK Cibalia
0.86

Vukovar creates 99% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 107 away

creates per match

Vukovar
1.90
HNK Cibalia
1.04

allows per match

Vukovar
0.69
HNK Cibalia
1.52

finishing

Vukovar+0.00on par
HNK Cibalia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vukovar ↓

HNK Cibalia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vukovar or draw
81%
Vukovar or HNK Cibalia
76%
Draw or HNK Cibalia
43%

Winning margin

Vukovar wins by 2+
32%
HNK Cibalia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vukovar 1+ goals
82%
Vukovar 2+ goals
51%
Vukovar 3+ goals
24%
HNK Cibalia 1+ goals
58%
HNK Cibalia 2+ goals
21%
HNK Cibalia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vukovar (draw refunded)
75%
HNK Cibalia (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vukovar at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.69 · 51 matches

HNK Cibalia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vukovar attack 1.90 + HNK Cibalia defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.71

HNK Cibalia attack 1.04 + Vukovar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vukovar scores more
57%
level
24%
HNK Cibalia scores more
19%

Vukovar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vukovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Vukovar 4–2 HNK Cibalia

Vukovar beat HNK Cibalia 4-2 in First NL on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion u Borovom Naselju in Vukovar.