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Vukovar vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo — First NL 2018

Vukovar
Vukovar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
4/4/2024First NLFirst NL · Round 25Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Vukovar58%
×Draw24%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vukovar
1.69
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.82

Vukovar creates 106% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 122 away

creates per match

Vukovar
1.90
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.96

allows per match

Vukovar
0.69
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.47

finishing

Vukovar+0.00on par
Bsk Bijelo Brdo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vukovar ↓

Bsk Bijelo Brdo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vukovar or draw
82%
Vukovar or Bsk Bijelo Brdo
76%
Draw or Bsk Bijelo Brdo
42%

Winning margin

Vukovar wins by 2+
32%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vukovar 1+ goals
82%
Vukovar 2+ goals
50%
Vukovar 3+ goals
24%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1+ goals
56%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2+ goals
20%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Vukovar (draw refunded)
76%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vukovar at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.69 · 51 matches

Bsk Bijelo Brdo away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vukovar attack 1.90 + Bsk Bijelo Brdo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Bsk Bijelo Brdo attack 0.96 + Vukovar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vukovar scores more
58%
level
24%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo scores more
18%

Vukovar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vukovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vukovar vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo

Vukovar and Bsk Bijelo Brdo drew 2-2 in First NL on April 4, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Vukovar.