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VSK Århus vs Thisted FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

VSK Århus
VSK Århus
FT
2 – 2
Thisted FC
Thisted FC
10/24/20202nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Vejlby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

VSK Århus41%
×Draw26%
Thisted FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VSK Århus
1.41
Thisted FC
1.22

VSK Århus creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 87 away

creates per match

VSK Århus
1.34
Thisted FC
1.20

allows per match

VSK Århus
1.24
Thisted FC
1.48

finishing

VSK Århus+0.00on par
Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Århus ↓

Thisted FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

VSK Århus or draw
67%
VSK Århus or Thisted FC
74%
Draw or Thisted FC
59%

Winning margin

VSK Århus wins by 2+
20%
Thisted FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

VSK Århus 1+ goals
76%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
41%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
17%
Thisted FC 1+ goals
70%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
34%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

VSK Århus (draw refunded)
56%
Thisted FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Århus at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Århus attack 1.34 + Thisted FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Thisted FC attack 1.20 + VSK Århus defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

VSK Århus scores more
41%
level
26%
Thisted FC scores more
33%

VSK Århus at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VSK Århus vs Thisted FC

VSK Århus and Thisted FC drew 2-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Vejlby Stadion in Risskov.