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VSK Århus vs Roskilde — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

VSK Århus
VSK Århus
Preview
12:00
Roskilde
Roskilde
4/3/20272nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 22
Big match
37%
VSK Århus
model favours
37%26%37%

Both teams score in 79% of Roskilde’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

VSK Århus37%
×Draw26%
Roskilde37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VSK Århus
1.33
Roskilde
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 46 away

creates per match

VSK Århus
1.34
Roskilde
1.43

allows per match

VSK Århus
1.24
Roskilde
1.33

finishing

VSK Århus+0.00on par
Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Århus ↓

Roskilde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

VSK Århus or draw
63%
VSK Århus or Roskilde
74%
Draw or Roskilde
63%

Winning margin

VSK Århus wins by 2+
17%
Roskilde wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

VSK Århus 1+ goals
74%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
38%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
15%
Roskilde 1+ goals
74%
Roskilde 2+ goals
38%
Roskilde 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

VSK Århus (draw refunded)
50%
Roskilde (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Århus at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.24 · 29 matches

Roskilde away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Århus attack 1.34 + Roskilde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Roskilde attack 1.43 + VSK Århus defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

VSK Århus scores more
37%
level
26%
Roskilde scores more
37%

VSK Århus at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • VSK Århus win just 15% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 4.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Århus
WWLD
Roskilde
LDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: VSK Århus host Roskilde

April 3, 2027: VSK Århus take on Roskilde in 2nd Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.