Roskilde 5–0 VSK Århus: Result & Stats

Roskilde

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

VSK Århus

6/11/2022

3. Division · Promotion Group - 10Roskilde Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Roskilde62%

×Draw19%

VSK Århus19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RoskildeExpected goals in this matchVSK Århus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.25

Roskilde

2.40

VSK Århus

1.25

Roskilde creates 92% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 64 away

3.44

creates per match

1.50

1.00

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Roskilde

3.44

VSK Århus

1.50

allows per match

Roskilde

1.00

VSK Århus

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roskilde+0.00on par

VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roskilde ↓

VSK Århus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Roskilde or draw

81%

Roskilde or VSK Århus

81%

Draw or VSK Århus

38%

Winning margin

Roskilde wins by 2+

41%

VSK Århus wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Roskilde 1+ goals

91%

Roskilde 2+ goals

69%

Roskilde 3+ goals

42%

VSK Århus 1+ goals

71%

VSK Århus 2+ goals

36%

VSK Århus 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Roskilde (draw refunded)

77%

VSK Århus (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roskilde at home — creates 3.44, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roskilde attack 3.44 + VSK Århus defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.40

VSK Århus attack 1.50 + Roskilde defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Roskilde scores more

62%

level

19%

VSK Århus scores more

19%

Roskilde at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff