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VSK Aarhus W vs Nordsjælland W — Kvindeliga 2019

VSK Aarhus W
VSK Aarhus W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Nordsjælland W
Nordsjælland W
9/28/2019KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 9Vejlby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

VSK Aarhus W35%
×Draw24%
Nordsjælland W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VSK Aarhus W
1.45
Nordsjælland W
1.60

Nordsjælland W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 81 away

creates per match

VSK Aarhus W
1.67
Nordsjælland W
1.31

allows per match

VSK Aarhus W
1.89
Nordsjælland W
1.23

finishing

VSK Aarhus W+0.00on par
Nordsjælland W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Aarhus W ↓

Nordsjælland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

VSK Aarhus W or draw
59%
VSK Aarhus W or Nordsjælland W
76%
Draw or Nordsjælland W
65%

Winning margin

VSK Aarhus W wins by 2+
16%
Nordsjælland W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

VSK Aarhus W 1+ goals
77%
VSK Aarhus W 2+ goals
42%
VSK Aarhus W 3+ goals
18%
Nordsjælland W 1+ goals
80%
Nordsjælland W 2+ goals
47%
Nordsjælland W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

VSK Aarhus W (draw refunded)
46%
Nordsjælland W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Aarhus W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Nordsjælland W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Aarhus W attack 1.67 + Nordsjælland W defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.45

Nordsjælland W attack 1.31 + VSK Aarhus W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

VSK Aarhus W scores more
35%
level
24%
Nordsjælland W scores more
41%

Nordsjælland W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nordsjælland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvindeliga: VSK Aarhus W 1–3 Nordsjælland W

Nordsjælland W beat VSK Aarhus W 3-1 in Kvindeliga on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Vejlby Stadion in Risskov.