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VSK Aarhus W vs BSF W — Kvindeliga 2019

VSK Aarhus W
VSK Aarhus W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
BSF W
BSF W
9/7/2019KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 6Vejlby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

VSK Aarhus W70%
×Draw16%
BSF W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VSK Aarhus W
2.83
BSF W
1.23

VSK Aarhus W creates 130% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

VSK Aarhus W
1.67
BSF W
0.56

allows per match

VSK Aarhus W
1.89
BSF W
4.00

finishing

VSK Aarhus W+0.00on par
BSF W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VSK Aarhus W ↓

BSF W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

VSK Aarhus W or draw
86%
VSK Aarhus W or BSF W
84%
Draw or BSF W
30%

Winning margin

VSK Aarhus W wins by 2+
49%
BSF W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

VSK Aarhus W 1+ goals
94%
VSK Aarhus W 2+ goals
77%
VSK Aarhus W 3+ goals
53%
BSF W 1+ goals
71%
BSF W 2+ goals
35%
BSF W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

VSK Aarhus W (draw refunded)
83%
BSF W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VSK Aarhus W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

BSF W away — creates 0.56, concedes 4.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VSK Aarhus W attack 1.67 + BSF W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

BSF W attack 0.56 + VSK Aarhus W defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

VSK Aarhus W scores more
70%
level
16%
BSF W scores more
14%

VSK Aarhus W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "VSK Aarhus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvindeliga: VSK Aarhus W 4–0 BSF W

VSK Aarhus W beat BSF W 4-0 in Kvindeliga on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Vejlby Stadion in Risskov.