Vsetín 0–4 Viktoria Otrokovice: Result & Stats

Vsetín

FT

0 – 4

Viktoria Otrokovice

7/18/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vsetín23%

×Draw19%

Viktoria Otrokovice58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VsetínExpected goals in this matchViktoria Otrokovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.38

Vsetín

1.44

Viktoria Otrokovice

2.38

Viktoria Otrokovice creates 65% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 14 away

0.67

creates per match

2.43

2.33

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Vsetín

0.67

Viktoria Otrokovice

2.43

allows per match

Vsetín

2.33

Viktoria Otrokovice

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vsetín+0.00on par

Viktoria Otrokovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vsetín ↓

Viktoria Otrokovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Vsetín or draw

42%

Vsetín or Viktoria Otrokovice

81%

Draw or Viktoria Otrokovice

77%

Winning margin

Vsetín wins by 2+

10%

Viktoria Otrokovice wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Vsetín 1+ goals

76%

Vsetín 2+ goals

42%

Vsetín 3+ goals

18%

Viktoria Otrokovice 1+ goals

91%

Viktoria Otrokovice 2+ goals

68%

Viktoria Otrokovice 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Vsetín (draw refunded)

28%

Viktoria Otrokovice (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vsetín at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Viktoria Otrokovice away — creates 2.43, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vsetín attack 0.67 + Viktoria Otrokovice defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Viktoria Otrokovice attack 2.43 + Vsetín defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vsetín scores more

23%

level

19%

Viktoria Otrokovice scores more

58%

Viktoria Otrokovice at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Viktoria Otrokovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff