Vsetín 3–0 Jiskra Rýmařov: Result & Stats

Vsetín

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jiskra Rýmařov

6/15/2024

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 30Stadion Tyršova ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vsetín59%

×Draw21%

Jiskra Rýmařov20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VsetínExpected goals in this matchJiskra Rýmařov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.14

Vsetín

2.11

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.14

Vsetín creates 85% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

2.02

creates per match

1.27

1.00

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Vsetín

2.02

Jiskra Rýmařov

1.27

allows per match

Vsetín

1.00

Jiskra Rýmařov

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vsetín+0.00on par

Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vsetín ↓

Jiskra Rýmařov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Vsetín or draw

80%

Vsetín or Jiskra Rýmařov

79%

Draw or Jiskra Rýmařov

41%

Winning margin

Vsetín wins by 2+

36%

Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vsetín 1+ goals

88%

Vsetín 2+ goals

62%

Vsetín 3+ goals

35%

Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals

68%

Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals

32%

Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vsetín (draw refunded)

75%

Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vsetín at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.00 · 66 matches

Jiskra Rýmařov away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vsetín attack 2.02 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.11

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 1.27 + Vsetín defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vsetín scores more

59%

level

21%

Jiskra Rýmařov scores more

20%

Vsetín at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vsetín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff