Vsetín 5–0 HFK Olomouc: Result & Stats

Vsetín

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

HFK Olomouc

6/3/2023

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 25Stadion Tyršova ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Vsetín63%

×Draw20%

HFK Olomouc18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VsetínExpected goals in this matchHFK Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.10

Vsetín

2.24

HFK Olomouc

1.10

Vsetín creates 104% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

2.02

creates per match

1.21

1.00

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Vsetín

2.02

HFK Olomouc

1.21

allows per match

Vsetín

1.00

HFK Olomouc

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vsetín+0.00on par

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vsetín ↓

HFK Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Vsetín or draw

82%

Vsetín or HFK Olomouc

80%

Draw or HFK Olomouc

37%

Winning margin

Vsetín wins by 2+

40%

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vsetín 1+ goals

89%

Vsetín 2+ goals

65%

Vsetín 3+ goals

38%

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals

67%

HFK Olomouc 2+ goals

30%

HFK Olomouc 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vsetín (draw refunded)

78%

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vsetín at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.00 · 66 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vsetín attack 2.02 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.24

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Vsetín defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vsetín scores more

63%

level

20%

HFK Olomouc scores more

18%

Vsetín at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vsetín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff