Øvrevoll Hosle W 1–3 Fortuna Ålesund W

Øvrevoll Hosle W

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Fortuna Ålesund W

10/8/2023

1. Division Women · Promotion Round - 1Hoslebanen kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Øvrevoll Hosle W36%

×Draw24%

Fortuna Ålesund W40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Øvrevoll Hosle WExpected goals in this matchFortuna Ålesund W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.59

Øvrevoll Hosle W

1.51

Fortuna Ålesund W

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 48 away

1.77

creates per match

1.67

1.51

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Øvrevoll Hosle W

1.77

Fortuna Ålesund W

1.67

allows per match

Øvrevoll Hosle W

1.51

Fortuna Ålesund W

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Øvrevoll Hosle W+0.00on par

Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øvrevoll Hosle W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Øvrevoll Hosle W or draw

60%

Øvrevoll Hosle W or Fortuna Ålesund W

76%

Draw or Fortuna Ålesund W

64%

Winning margin

Øvrevoll Hosle W wins by 2+

17%

Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Øvrevoll Hosle W 1+ goals

78%

Øvrevoll Hosle W 2+ goals

44%

Øvrevoll Hosle W 3+ goals

19%

Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals

80%

Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals

47%

Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Øvrevoll Hosle W (draw refunded)

48%

Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øvrevoll Hosle W at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Fortuna Ålesund W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øvrevoll Hosle W attack 1.77 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 1.67 + Øvrevoll Hosle W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Øvrevoll Hosle W scores more

36%

level

24%

Fortuna Ålesund W scores more

40%

Fortuna Ålesund W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fortuna Ålesund W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff