Øvrevoll Hosle 4–1 Klepp W: Result & Stats

Øvrevoll Hosle

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Klepp W

6/5/2022

1. Division Women · Round 11DNB Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Øvrevoll Hosle54%

×Draw21%

Klepp W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Øvrevoll HosleExpected goals in this matchKlepp W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.42

Øvrevoll Hosle

2.17

Klepp W

1.42

Øvrevoll Hosle creates 53% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 28 away

1.77

creates per match

1.32

1.51

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Øvrevoll Hosle

1.77

Klepp W

1.32

allows per match

Øvrevoll Hosle

1.51

Klepp W

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Øvrevoll Hosle+0.00on par

Klepp W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Øvrevoll Hosle ↓

Klepp W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Øvrevoll Hosle or draw

75%

Øvrevoll Hosle or Klepp W

79%

Draw or Klepp W

46%

Winning margin

Øvrevoll Hosle wins by 2+

33%

Klepp W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Øvrevoll Hosle 1+ goals

89%

Øvrevoll Hosle 2+ goals

64%

Øvrevoll Hosle 3+ goals

36%

Klepp W 1+ goals

76%

Klepp W 2+ goals

41%

Klepp W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Øvrevoll Hosle (draw refunded)

69%

Klepp W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Øvrevoll Hosle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Klepp W away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Øvrevoll Hosle attack 1.77 + Klepp W defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.17

Klepp W attack 1.32 + Øvrevoll Hosle defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Øvrevoll Hosle scores more

54%

level

21%

Klepp W scores more

25%

Øvrevoll Hosle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Øvrevoll Hosle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff