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Vrelo Sport vs FK Zlatibor — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FK Zlatibor
FK Zlatibor
10/29/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 11Sportski Centar Matic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vrelo Sport33%
×Draw32%
FK Zlatibor35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrelo Sport
0.95
FK Zlatibor
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

Vrelo Sport
0.73
FK Zlatibor
0.77

allows per match

Vrelo Sport
1.20
FK Zlatibor
1.18

finishing

Vrelo Sport+0.00on par
FK Zlatibor+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrelo Sport ↓

FK Zlatibor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Vrelo Sport or draw
65%
Vrelo Sport or FK Zlatibor
68%
Draw or FK Zlatibor
67%

Winning margin

Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
12%
FK Zlatibor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
61%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
25%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
7%
FK Zlatibor 1+ goals
62%
FK Zlatibor 2+ goals
26%
FK Zlatibor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
49%
FK Zlatibor (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrelo Sport at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

FK Zlatibor away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrelo Sport attack 0.73 + FK Zlatibor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.95

FK Zlatibor attack 0.77 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Vrelo Sport scores more
33%
level
32%
FK Zlatibor scores more
35%

FK Zlatibor at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "FK Zlatibor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vrelo Sport vs FK Zlatibor

Vrelo Sport beat FK Zlatibor 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Matic in Ub.