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Vrelo Sport vs FAP — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
FT
0 – 1
FAP
FAP
10/15/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 9Sportski Centar Matic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Vrelo Sport23%
×Draw28%
FAP49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrelo Sport
0.82
FAP
1.35

FAP creates 65% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Vrelo Sport
0.73
FAP
1.51

allows per match

Vrelo Sport
1.20
FAP
0.91

finishing

Vrelo Sport+0.00on par
FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrelo Sport ↓

FAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vrelo Sport or draw
51%
Vrelo Sport or FAP
72%
Draw or FAP
77%

Winning margin

Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
7%
FAP wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
56%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
20%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
5%
FAP 1+ goals
74%
FAP 2+ goals
39%
FAP 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
32%
FAP (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrelo Sport at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

FAP away — creates 1.51, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrelo Sport attack 0.73 + FAP defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

FAP attack 1.51 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vrelo Sport scores more
23%
level
28%
FAP scores more
49%

FAP at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vrelo Sport vs FAP

FAP beat Vrelo Sport 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Sportski Centar Matic in Ub.