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Vreden vs TuS Erndtebruck — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Vreden
Vreden
FT
1 – 1
TuS Erndtebruck
TuS Erndtebruck
9/12/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 3Hamalandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Vreden56%
×Draw20%
TuS Erndtebruck24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vreden
2.25
TuS Erndtebruck
1.41

Vreden creates 60% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 35 away

creates per match

Vreden
1.80
TuS Erndtebruck
1.29

allows per match

Vreden
1.53
TuS Erndtebruck
2.71

finishing

Vreden+0.00on par
TuS Erndtebruck+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vreden ↓

TuS Erndtebruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Vreden or draw
76%
Vreden or TuS Erndtebruck
80%
Draw or TuS Erndtebruck
44%

Winning margin

Vreden wins by 2+
35%
TuS Erndtebruck wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vreden 1+ goals
89%
Vreden 2+ goals
65%
Vreden 3+ goals
39%
TuS Erndtebruck 1+ goals
76%
TuS Erndtebruck 2+ goals
41%
TuS Erndtebruck 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vreden (draw refunded)
70%
TuS Erndtebruck (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vreden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

TuS Erndtebruck away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vreden attack 1.80 + TuS Erndtebruck defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.25

TuS Erndtebruck attack 1.29 + Vreden defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vreden scores more
56%
level
20%
TuS Erndtebruck scores more
24%

Vreden at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vreden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Vreden 1–1 TuS Erndtebruck

Vreden and TuS Erndtebruck drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Hamalandstadion in Vreden.