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Vreden vs Rot Weiss Ahlen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Vreden
Vreden
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rot Weiss Ahlen
Rot Weiss Ahlen
3/29/2026Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 28Hamalandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Vreden50%
×Draw22%
Rot Weiss Ahlen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vreden
2.00
Rot Weiss Ahlen
1.46

Vreden creates 37% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 35 away

creates per match

Vreden
1.80
Rot Weiss Ahlen
1.40

allows per match

Vreden
1.53
Rot Weiss Ahlen
2.20

finishing

Vreden+0.00on par
Rot Weiss Ahlen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vreden ↓

Rot Weiss Ahlen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Vreden or draw
72%
Vreden or Rot Weiss Ahlen
78%
Draw or Rot Weiss Ahlen
50%

Winning margin

Vreden wins by 2+
29%
Rot Weiss Ahlen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vreden 1+ goals
86%
Vreden 2+ goals
59%
Vreden 3+ goals
32%
Rot Weiss Ahlen 1+ goals
77%
Rot Weiss Ahlen 2+ goals
43%
Rot Weiss Ahlen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Vreden (draw refunded)
64%
Rot Weiss Ahlen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vreden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

Rot Weiss Ahlen away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vreden attack 1.80 + Rot Weiss Ahlen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.00

Rot Weiss Ahlen attack 1.40 + Vreden defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vreden scores more
50%
level
22%
Rot Weiss Ahlen scores more
28%

Vreden at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vreden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Vreden 3–1 Rot Weiss Ahlen

Vreden beat Rot Weiss Ahlen 3-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 29, 2026.

The match was played at Hamalandstadion in Vreden.