Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vreden vs Hammer SpVg — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Vreden
Vreden
FT
2 – 1
Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
9/27/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 5Hamalandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vreden58%
×Draw21%
Hammer SpVg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vreden
2.14
Hammer SpVg
1.24

Vreden creates 73% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 19 away

creates per match

Vreden
1.80
Hammer SpVg
0.95

allows per match

Vreden
1.53
Hammer SpVg
2.47

finishing

Vreden+0.00on par
Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vreden ↓

Hammer SpVg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vreden or draw
78%
Vreden or Hammer SpVg
79%
Draw or Hammer SpVg
42%

Winning margin

Vreden wins by 2+
35%
Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vreden 1+ goals
88%
Vreden 2+ goals
63%
Vreden 3+ goals
36%
Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
71%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
35%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vreden (draw refunded)
73%
Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vreden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vreden attack 1.80 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.14

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + Vreden defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Vreden scores more
58%
level
21%
Hammer SpVg scores more
22%

Vreden at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vreden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vreden vs Hammer SpVg

Vreden beat Hammer SpVg 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Hamalandstadion in Vreden.