Vreden 2–1 Erkenschwick: Result & Stats

Vreden

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Erkenschwick

12/1/2024

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 18Hamalandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Vreden46%

×Draw23%

Erkenschwick31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VredenExpected goals in this matchErkenschwick

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.50

Vreden

1.85

Erkenschwick

1.50

Vreden creates 23% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 53 away

1.80

creates per match

1.47

1.53

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Vreden

1.80

Erkenschwick

1.47

allows per match

Vreden

1.53

Erkenschwick

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vreden+0.00on par

Erkenschwick+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vreden ↓

Erkenschwick →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Vreden or draw

69%

Vreden or Erkenschwick

77%

Draw or Erkenschwick

54%

Winning margin

Vreden wins by 2+

25%

Erkenschwick wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Vreden 1+ goals

84%

Vreden 2+ goals

55%

Vreden 3+ goals

28%

Erkenschwick 1+ goals

78%

Erkenschwick 2+ goals

44%

Erkenschwick 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Vreden (draw refunded)

59%

Erkenschwick (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vreden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

Erkenschwick away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.91 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vreden attack 1.80 + Erkenschwick defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.85

Erkenschwick attack 1.47 + Vreden defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vreden scores more

46%

level

23%

Erkenschwick scores more

31%

Vreden at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vreden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff