Vreden 5–0 Concordia Wiemelhausen: Result & Stats

Vreden

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Concordia Wiemelhausen

B. Gunes 87', 81', 66'

N. Ostenkotter 52'

K. Heisterkamp 13'

11/10/2024

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 14Hamalandstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Vreden63%

×Draw18%

Concordia Wiemelhausen19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VredenExpected goals in this matchConcordia Wiemelhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.41

Vreden

2.62

Concordia Wiemelhausen

1.41

Vreden creates 86% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 18 away

1.80

creates per match

1.28

1.53

allows per match

3.44

creates per match

Vreden

1.80

Concordia Wiemelhausen

1.28

allows per match

Vreden

1.53

Concordia Wiemelhausen

3.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vreden+0.00on par

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vreden ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Vreden or draw

81%

Vreden or Concordia Wiemelhausen

82%

Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen

37%

Winning margin

Vreden wins by 2+

42%

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vreden 1+ goals

93%

Vreden 2+ goals

73%

Vreden 3+ goals

48%

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals

76%

Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals

41%

Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Vreden (draw refunded)

76%

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vreden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.53 · 89 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vreden attack 1.80 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.62

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Vreden defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Vreden scores more

63%

level

18%

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more

19%

Vreden at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Vreden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

K. Heisterkamp

52'

N. Ostenkotter

66'

B. Gunes

81'

B. Gunes

87'

B. Gunes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff