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Vrchovina vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Vrchovina
Vrchovina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
3/26/20223. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 21Stadion Nové Město na Moravě

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Vrchovina61%
×Draw21%
Vysočina Jihlava II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vrchovina
2.10
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.07

Vrchovina creates 96% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 23 away

creates per match

Vrchovina
1.45
Vysočina Jihlava II
0.70

allows per match

Vrchovina
1.45
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.74

finishing

Vrchovina+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vrchovina ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vrchovina or draw
81%
Vrchovina or Vysočina Jihlava II
79%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
39%

Winning margin

Vrchovina wins by 2+
37%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vrchovina 1+ goals
88%
Vrchovina 2+ goals
62%
Vrchovina 3+ goals
35%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
66%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
29%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vrchovina (draw refunded)
77%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vrchovina at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 65 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.74 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vrchovina attack 1.45 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.10

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 0.70 + Vrchovina defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vrchovina scores more
61%
level
21%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
19%

Vrchovina at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vrchovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vrchovina vs Vysočina Jihlava II

Vrchovina beat Vysočina Jihlava II 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Nové Město na Moravě in Nové Město na Moravě.